Correlation Word Problems
Solve real correlation problems: compute r step by step from a small data set, interpret it in context, judge causal claims and see how an outlier changes r.
Definition
- 1.Find the means and .
- 2.Find each deviation and .
- 3.Add the products: .
- 4.Add the squares: and .
- 5.Divide:
- Direction: the sign of (positive: both rise together; negative: one rises while the other falls).
- Strength: the size of (scale below).
- Causation: a strong alone never proves that one variable causes the other. Look for a confounding variable (also called a lurking variable) and ask whether the data come from a controlled experiment.
- Outliers: one unusual point can make much stronger, much weaker or even change its sign.
| r | Strength | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| to | very weak | ||
| to | weak | ||
| to | moderate | ||
| to | strong | ||
| to | very strong |
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Worked Examples
Find the means
Find the deviations
Multiply the deviations and add
Square the deviations and add
Apply the formula
Interpret in context
Answer: : a strong positive correlation. Students who studied longer tended to score higher, although the student who studied 1 hour scored better than the one who studied 2 hours, so the pattern is not perfect.
Common Mistakes
Multiplying the raw values instead of the deviations
Why it's wrong: The formula uses the distances from the means. Raw products are always large and positive for positive data and give a wrong .
Correct: Subtract the means first. A quick check: the deviations of each variable add up to .
Forgetting the square root or rounding too early
Why it's wrong: is not . Rounding to gives instead of .
Correct: Take the square root of and round only the final answer to 2 decimal places.
Treating a strong as proof that one variable causes the other
Why it's wrong: Observational data can show a strong correlation because a confounding variable drives both, as rainy weather drives umbrella sales and traffic accidents.
Correct: Say "is associated with". Only a randomized controlled experiment can justify a causal claim.
Ignoring an outlier or deleting it without a reason
Why it's wrong: One point can change from to . Ignoring it hides the problem; deleting it just because it is inconvenient is dishonest.
Correct: Plot the data, compute with and without the outlier and remove it only with a clear reason (a measuring error, a snail), stating that you did.
Interactive Visual
Scatter Plot
Study hours and quiz scores (r = 0.75)
ŷ = 3x + 61
r = 0.75 · strong positive correlation
Tap a point to see its coordinates.
Scatter Plot
One outlier: r drops from 1 to 0
ŷ = 4
r = 0 · no linear correlation
Tap a point to see its coordinates.
Interactive Sandbox
Expression Calculator
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Practice Problems
18 problemsWhy It Matters
- Health news: "People who drink coffee live longer" is usually a correlation from a survey, not proof.
- Sports: coaches check whether training hours really go with better race times before changing a plan.
- Business and energy: a shop compares temperature with sales, a family compares outdoor temperature with heating use.
- Science projects: one broken measurement (an outlier) can ruin a result if nobody checks the scatter plot.
Real World Applications
Sports Science
Coaches compare weekly training hours with race times to check whether more training goes with faster runs.
Example:
For a running club the sums are , and . A negative means: more training, lower (faster) times.
A running club records training hours per week and 5 km times (minutes) for its members. The sums are , and .
What is the correlation coefficient ?
Step 1: Write the mathematical expression
Compute :
Reading the News Critically
Journalists and readers must decide whether a reported correlation supports a claim about cause and effect.
Example:
A report finds between the number of TVs per 100 people in a country and life expectancy, and a blog says TVs make people live longer.
Across many countries, the number of TVs per 100 people and life expectancy have . A blog concludes that buying more TVs makes people live longer.
Is the causal claim justified?
Step 1: Choose the right answer
Choose your verdict:
Quality Control of Sensors
Engineers check measurement data for faulty readings, because one bad value can hide a perfect relationship.
Example:
A temperature sensor is tested at five settings: , , , and a faulty reading .
A sensor gives the readings , , , , . The last reading is a known error. The means are and .
What is once the faulty reading is removed?
Step 1: Write the mathematical expression
Compare with and without the error:
Key Takeaways
- 1To compute by hand: means, deviations, , , , then
- 2Check your work: the deviations of each variable add up to , and must lie between and
- 3Round only the final value of , usually to 2 decimal places
- 4Interpret in context: the sign gives the direction, gives the strength
- 5A strong correlation from observational data does not justify a causal claim; look for confounding variables
- 6One outlier can strengthen, weaken or even reverse : plot the data and compare with and without it
Frequently Asked Questions
Glossary
- Deviation
- The distance of a value from the mean, ; it can be positive or negative
- The sum of the products of deviations, ; its sign is the sign of
- and
- The sums of squared deviations of and of ; they are never negative
- Outlier
- A data point far from the pattern of the others; it can change a lot
- Confounding variable
- A variable not included in the study that affects both variables and can create a misleading correlation
- Controlled experiment
- A study in which the researcher assigns the treatment at random; the only kind of study that can justify a causal claim
Formula Card
Correlation coefficient
$S_{xy} = \sum(x_i - \bar{x})(y_i - \bar{y})$, $S_{xx} = \sum(x_i - \bar{x})^2$, $S_{yy} = \sum(y_i - \bar{y})^2$
Checks
If a deviation sum is not $0$ or $|r| > 1$, there is a calculation error
Strength scale
Each word starts at its value; below $0.20$ the correlation is very weak