Normal Probability
Find probabilities and percentiles for normal data in real units: standardize, read the z-table, and work backwards to cut-off values.
Definition
The four-step method
- 1.Sketch and shade the region: left of , right of , or between and .
- 2.Standardize: turn each value into a z-score
- 3.Read the z-table: it gives the area to the left of , that is (see the lesson on the standard normal distribution).
- 4.Adjust for the region:
- Left:
- Right:
- Between:
Working backwards: percentiles and cut-offs
Try it now
Worked Examples
Sketch and shade
Standardize
Read the z-table
Interpret
Answer: : about 93.32% of women are shorter than 174 cm.
Common Mistakes
Using the table value directly for a "greater than" question, for example
Why it's wrong: The z-table always gives the area to the LEFT of . A right tail is everything else.
Correct: Subtract from 1: . A quick sketch shows the right tail is small, so 0.8944 cannot be right.
Subtracting the z-scores first:
Why it's wrong: Areas under a curve do not work like that. You need the area up to each bound, then the difference between those areas.
Correct: Look up both left areas and subtract them: .
Standardizing in the wrong order or dividing by the wrong number: or
Why it's wrong: Reversing the subtraction flips the sign, so you land on the wrong side of the mean. Dividing by the variance gives the wrong distance.
Correct: Always : values above the mean get a positive , values below get a negative .
In inverse problems, using the percentage as the z-score (z = 0.90) or using the wrong tail (z = -1.28 for the top 10%)
Why it's wrong: The percentage is an AREA, which you look for inside the table. The z-score is read from the row and column edges.
Correct: Top 10% means 0.90 to the left, which gives (positive, above the mean). Bottom 10% gives .
Interactive Visual
Women's heights: μ = 165 cm, σ = 6 cm. Drag the bound or switch the shading
μ = 165 cm, σ = 6 cm · Drag a handle or type x or z.
z = (x − μ)/σ = (174 − 165)/6 = 1.5
P(X ≤ 174) = P(Z ≤ 1.5) ≈ 0.9332 = 93.32%
About 93.32% of all values fall in the shaded region.
Exam scores: μ = 70, σ = 8. Area between 62 and 86
μ = 70 points, σ = 8 points · Drag a handle or type x or z.
z = (x − μ)/σ = (62 − 70)/8 = -1
z = (x − μ)/σ = (86 − 70)/8 = 2
P(62 ≤ X ≤ 86) = P(-1 ≤ Z ≤ 2) ≈ 0.8186 = 81.86%
About 81.86% of all values fall in the shaded region.
Cut-off: which score marks the top 10%?
μ = 70 points, σ = 8 points · Drag a handle or type x or z.
Move the handle until the shaded area is 0.1000 (10%).
x = μ + zσ = 70 + 0 · 8 ≈ 70 points
Interactive Sandbox
Expression Calculator
Try these:
History
No calculations yet
Practice Problems
18 problemsWhy It Matters
- Manufacturing: what share of bottles is underfilled, and where to set the machine so almost none are
- Health: doctors compare a child's height or weight to growth charts, which are percentiles of a normal curve
- Education: exam boards set the score for the top 10% or decide how many students pass
- Products: a company can promise "90% of batteries last at least 18 hours" only after this calculation
- Sports and science: deciding whether a result is unusual means asking how much area lies beyond it
Real World Applications
Quality Control: Underfilled Cans
Drink factories check what share of cans fall below the amount printed on the label, and adjust the filling machines.
Example:
A line fills cans with mL and mL. Any can below 327 mL is flagged as underfilled.
Cans are filled with mL and mL, normally distributed. The table gives .
What proportion of cans contain less than 327 mL? Give a decimal.
Step 1: Write the mathematical expression
Standardize 327 mL, then read the left area:
Growth Charts at the Doctor
Pediatricians compare babies with growth charts. Each curve on the chart is a percentile of a normal distribution.
Example:
Weights of 6-month-old babies in a study are about normal with kg and kg. A baby below the 10th percentile gets an extra check-up.
Baby weights at 6 months: kg, kg. The table shows that has 10% of the area to its left.
Below what weight (in kg) is a baby in the lowest 10%?
Step 1: Write the mathematical expression
Use :
Planning a City Marathon
Race organizers estimate how many runners will be on the course at certain times, to plan water stations and staff.
Example:
Finishing times are about normal with minutes and minutes. Organizers want to know the share of runners finishing between 225 and 285 minutes.
Finishing times: min, min. Table values: and .
What proportion of runners finish between 225 and 285 minutes?
Step 1: Write the mathematical expression
Subtract the two left areas:
Key Takeaways
- 1To find a normal probability, sketch the region, standardize with , read the z-table, then adjust
- 2The z-table gives the LEFT area:
- 3Right tail:
- 4Between two values:
- 5Inverse problems: find for the given area inside the table, then (top 10% means )
- 6A probability is also a proportion of the population: of 2000 bottles is about 134 bottles
Frequently Asked Questions
Glossary
- Standardizing
- Turning a value into a z-score with , so that the standard normal table can be used
- Z-table
- Table of the standard normal distribution: for each it gives the area to the left,
- Left tail / right tail
- The area below a value (left) or above a value (right) under the normal curve
- Complement rule
- , because the whole area under the curve is 1
- Percentile
- The value with a given percentage of the population below it, for example the 90th percentile
- Cut-off value
- The value that separates a given area, for example the top 10%
Formula Card
Standardize
From real units to a z-score
Left area
Read straight from the z-table
Right area
Complement of the table value
Area between
Difference of two left areas
Cut-off value
From a z-score back to real units (percentiles)